Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks

The Real and Financial Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

We show theoretically and empirically how real and financial frictions amplify the impact of uncertainty shocks on firms’investment, employment, debt (term structure of debt growth), and cash holding. We start by building a model with real and financial frictions, alongside uncertainty shocks, and show how adding financial frictions to the model almost doubles the negative impact of uncertainty...

Financial frictions and shocks

This paper aims to quantify the extent to which sources of economic uctuations generate in the nancial markets. First, a novel identi cation method is introduced into a Bayesian VAR model in order to identify a nancial type shock which we refer to as a `risk news' shock. We identify the risk news shock in macroeconomic time series for the US, while simultaneously identifying other standard macr...

Real and Financial Shocks, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Probability of a Currency Crisis

Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility

I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation for nominal and real variables. I document a dichotomy in the evolution of the cyclical volatility of financial variables since the mid-1980s. While financial price variables are smoother during the Great Moderation, financial quantity measures experience an immoderation. A model with financial frictions and financial shocks allowing for st...

Uncertainty shocks and currency pegs∗

Uncertainty shocks cause economic activity to contract and more so, if monetary policy is constrained by an effective lower bound on interest rates. In this paper, we investigate whether countries with a currency peg or countries within currency unions are also particularly prone to suffer from the adverse effects of heightened uncertainty because they lack monetary independence. First, we esti...